OMENS, PORTENTS AND AUGURS - The Pocket Internet

"OMENS, PORTENTS AND AUGURS"

(A speech delivered at a bank marketing convention)

(Page 3)

So that's 1980... tomorrow. Can you take a few minutes to look at the day after tomorrow -- at, say the year 2000?

That's only 34 years away. By then, the changes in our communications industry will have been revolutionary because of four technical innovations(which I'm not going to get technical about)

(Editor's note: 1966 is long before home computers, fiber optic cable, video stores, and home satellite dishes.)

First, the satellites I've already mentioned, which make possible instantaneous communication in sound and pictures from any part of the world to any other part.

The second innovation is the laser beam. Up to now, electronic communication has been bottle-necked by the number of cables, wires and wavelengths which are available. There are cables for only three television networks. There are channels for a maximum of seven VHF television stations in any one area. Telephone, radio, telegraphy are restricted by similar physical limitations. The laser beam will change all that. It will provide an almost infinite number of channels of communication. Enough, in fact, for every one of the billions of people on earth to have several channels of his own.

The third innovation is xerography... the electronic communication of images which can then be transferred to paper.

"...you already know some of the
wondrous things computers can do.
This is only the beginning."

And the forth is the computer. You're in the banking business, so you already know some of the wondrous things computers can do. This is only the beginning.

Combine the laser beam, the satellite, xerography and the computer, and what do you have? You have by the year 2000 -- a roll of the drums please -- a Home Communications Center.

(Editor's note: Start thinking Internet, DVD, Cookies, Satellite Dishes, Intel video phones.)

A Home Communications Center will be a unit about the size of today's console TV set. And this little old box will do everything your current television set and radio and telephone and public library and stereo set and newspapers and magazines can do -- and it will do it all a thousand times better.

When you want to watch a television program in the year 2000, you will tune your set directly to a satellite. You will be able to watch the action -- live -- on our then current battle front, or the Davis Cup matches live from Australia. You'll have your choice of as many as 50 programs of all kinds from all over the world.

Of course, this Home Communication Center will include your radio -- with the same variety and geographic range of programs as you enjoy on television.

"Switch a switch,
push a button,
and you see and
hear local news,
national news,
international news,
sports news --
take your choice."

If none of this suits your fancy, you can take a tiny capsule you picked up at your local movie store, insert it in your Home Communication Center, and there -- in your living room, in wall-to-wall color --will be the super-spectacular movie of your choice.

Suppose you want to read the latest best seller. Push a button or two and the printed pages will appear before you on your screen. Your eyes get tired, so you switch your set to "Sound" and listen while old Richard Burton reads the book to you. Maybe you decide that you want to have the book in your hands. You switch the set to "Copy" and out comes a bound copy of the book... complete with ads on the dust jacket.

Now you want the latest news. Switch a switch, push a button, and you see and hear local news, national news, international news, sports news -- take your choice.

At this particular point in 2000 A.D. your hobby is studying the sex life of the dodo. Way back in 1966 you would have had to trot down to the public library and pore through a stack of musty files. But no more. You dial your set to the 2000 A.D. version of the public library -- an electronic information retrieval center -- and tune in -- in living color -- all the available information about how the dodo does what dodoes do. (And did inadequately, I guess, or why would the dodo be extinct?)

And, incidentally, this same magic box will serve as stereo... and be your telephone, complete with live pictures of the person you're talking to.. and print up your daily newspaper for you, too.

"Instead of buying
advertising exposure
by selecting media,
you'll buy it by interest
and by tuning pattern."

You can see that the Home Communications Center is going to cause revolutionary changes in advertising media. In the first place, a central recording system will provide precise information on who is tuned to what at any given time. In the second place, an advertiser won't have to buy magazines, newspapers, radio, television separately, and then try to match the demographics of the medium's audience with the demographics of his prospects. Instead of buying advertising exposure by selecting media, you'll buy it by interest and by tuning pattern. And you'll know the precise demographics and interest of the audience you're buying.

The third effect on media will probably be a considerable lowering of cost. Magazines operations like purchasing paper, printing, binding and shipping will be supplemented by a simple laser beam. Duplicate TV studio facilities, cables and relays will be replaced by the satellite.

Well, there you are.

I've talked about media.

I've talked about the future.

And I can tell from a growing rumbling in the rear of the room, I've talked about 31 minutes.

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